IN THE AMERICAS:#1 Argentina•Bahamas•Bolivia•Brazil•Canada•Chile•Colombia•Costa Rica•Dominican Republic•Ecuador•El Salvador•Guadeloupe•Guatemala•Honduras•Jamaica•Martinique•#1 Mexico•Nicaragua•Panama•Paraguay•Peru•Trinidad and Tobago•United States•Uruguay•Venezuela
IN EUROPE: Austria•#1 Belgium•Bulgaria•Croatia•Czech Republic•Denmark•Estonia•Finland•France•#1 Germany•Greece•Hungary•Iceland•Ireland•Italy•Latvia•Lithuania•Luxembourg•Malta•Netherlands•Norway•Poland•Portugal•Romania•Serbia•Slovakia•Slovenia•Spain•Sweden•Switzerland•Ukraine•United Kingdom
IN AFRICA: Egypt•Kenya•Mauritius•Morocco•Nigeria•#1 Réunion•South Africa
IN ASIA: Bahrain•Bangladesh•Cyprus•Hong Kong•Indonesia•Israel•Japan•Jordan•Kuwait•Lebanon•Malaysia•Maldives•Oman•Pakistan•Philippines•Qatar•Saudi Arabia•Singapore•Sri Lanka•Taiwan•Thailand•Turkey•United Arab Emirates•Vietnam
IN OCEANIA: Australia•#1 New Caledonia•New Zealand
Annie Duke’s new book, Thinking in Bets, helps us understand how to disentangle the role of luck and skill in determining outcomes. Being able to recognize the difference between these two forces is what thinking in bets is about. Once you can distinguish between the two, you can focus on improving the quality of your decisions. Poker is a much better model for life than chess, as it requires skill, luck, and making decisions in the face of incomplete information. You could make the smartest, most careful decision in firing a company president and still have it blow up in your face.
Equating outcomes solely with the quality of your decisions is one way in which we fail to improve our thinking. Calibrators use experience and information to more objectively update their beliefs. The more accurate our beliefs, the better the foundation of the bets we make. Our default setting is to believe what we hear is true. And because our beliefs shape how we see the world, we hold heavily biased ways of thinking based on beliefs we never tested.
Being smart makes it worse. Smart people are not more rational thinkers. In fact, they’re more prone to letting biases cloud their vision of the world. When we admit that we aren’t sure of something, we’re more open to updating our beliefs. This allows us to improve the quality of our decisions in the long run.
When we analyze outcomes, we have to figure out the role of both luck and skill. Luck is everything that we can’t control – the actions of others, the weather, our genes. Skill is related to how clear our understanding of the world is and the quality of the decision we made based on that understanding. Whether you like the messenger or not, your relationship with “the messenger” clouds how you see “the message”. If we have a negative opinion about the person delivering the message, we close our minds to what they are saying and miss a lot of learning opportunities.
When we have a positive opinion of the messenger, we tend to accept the message without much vetting. It’s important to pay attention to this and be honest with yourself. Don’t get lost in the trees and miss the forest. Sometimes we need to zoom out of the noise of the present to make good decisions about an uncertain future. Reactive decision-making can lead us to try to get rid of negative emotions in favor of sustaining positive emotions. The path of how you got to some outcome matters more than you think. A Ulysses Contract is when our past selves prevent our present selves from doing something stupid. There are two types: barrier-inducing and barrier-reducing. If you want to eat healthily and have a penchant for potato chips, you could choose not to ever have potato chips in the house. Scenario planning can help us make better decisions and plans.
How do you plan for the worst-case scenario where you don’t achieve your goal and instead, imagine a world in which you did?
In all aspects of life, 80% of outputs, results, and consequences come from 20% of inputs, efforts, and causes. Richard Koch was the first to write a book to present how individuals and groups can apply the 80/20 Principle. By understanding and applying the principle, you can become a lot happier and more effective. Reallocate your time/resources in 2 ways:. 1) Allocate more resources to the top 20% and address the underperforming 80%.
2) Develop a hypothesis about an important question and test it by collecting and comparing 2 sets of data. Digest these powerful tips in minutes with our summary & infographic. The 80/20 Principle is a 12-page summary of how businesses can apply the Pareto Principle to generate the most money with the least effort and resources. We also elaborate on how you can apply this principle to your personal life, including how to multiply your achievements, wealth, relationships, and happiness. In any business, 20% of the market players will make 80% of profits or surpluses, and 80% from customers, products, and employees.
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